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Calgary Rental Market Forecast
Average rent to rise as vacancies move lower

Along with other areas in Calgary’s housing market, the purpose-built
rental market has experienced an up-tick in demand. The apartment vacancy rate in October 2011 declined to 1.9 per cent from 3.6 per cent in October 2010. The apartment vacancy rate is forecast to average 1.7 per cent in October 2012, and decline to 1.5 per cent in 2013. With people taking advantage of the growing employment opportunities in the region, migration flows to Calgary will continue to be among the strongest contributors to rental demand.
With vacancies declining, fewer incentives will be offered while rental rates are forecast to increase this year.
The average two-bedroom rent is forecast to reach $1,150 per month in October 2012, up from $1,084 in
October 2011. Pressure on rental rates will remain steady as people migrate to the region and no large net additions to supply are expected in the near term. Landlords and property owners may also see more demand from younger renters as youth employment has improved with Calgary’s expanding economy. As such, the upward pressure on rental
rates is not expected to ease in 2013. In October 2013, the average two bedroom rent is forecast to rise to $1,200 per month, up $50 from a year earlier.The number of apartment rental units under construction, not including units
for social housing, has increased from the previous year. There were 404 apartment rental units underway in March, up 41 per cent from 287 units a year earlier. Despite the increase, apartment rental starts have only contributed to a portion of the rental units under construction. Many of the apartment rental units underway were originally intended to be sold as condominium units. However, as market conditions changed, some property owners and developers
decided to re-position their projects to take advantage of the growing demand in the rental market. The completion of the rental units under construction will likely not have a large impact on vacancy rates as an expanding population absorbs the new supply. Some older rental units are also anticipated to be converted into condominiums.


CMHC http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2012_B01.pdf?fr=1344960776770
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Average house prices in Calgary region to jump by $20,000 in next two years

AUGUST 14, 2012 9:01 AM
CALGARY — The average MLS residential sale price in the Calgary region will climb by more than $20,000 over the next two years, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp.(http://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/odpub/esub/64339/64339_2012_B01.pdf?fr=1344960776770)

In its third quarter 2012 Housing Market Outlook, released Tuesday, the CMHC said the average MLS sale price in the Calgary census metropolitan area will jump from $402,851 in 2011 to $413,000 this year and then to $424,000 in 2013.

The report also said MLS sales in the Calgary CMA will increase from 22,466 in 2011 to 25,200 this year and 25,800 next year.

And housing starts in the region will rise from 9,292 in 2011 to 12,000 this year but fall back to 11,700 in 2013.

“The economy in Calgary has improved compared to the previous year and the trends that we have seen thus far are expected to continue in the months ahead,” said Richard Cho, senior market analyst in Calgary for the CMHC. “Job growth, relatively low mortgage rates and higher average earnings will all contribute to housing demand. Net migration will also be a key contributor and we have already seen some encouraging numbers at the provincial and city levels.

“Whenever we have an influx of people move to a region, naturally they are going to look for a place to live. Some will look to the rental market while others may choose to buy an existing home or build a new one. Housing demand this year will be supported by a number of different fronts.”

Cho said the resale market has moved into more balanced levels this year and that is supporting price growth.

“Supply in the existing home market has declined from the previous year while sales have increased,” he added.

In Alberta, economic growth and job creation are supporting housing demand, said the CMHC. By year-end, single-detached starts are projected to reach 17,600 units, up over 15 per cent from 2011. In 2013, single-detached starts will rise five per cent to 18,400 units.

“Existing homeowners will see the value of their property rise and this will help with move-up buying,” said the agency.

Multi-family starts will increase by 35 per cent in 2012 to 14,200 units. To reduce the risk of rising inventory in the next few years, developers will moderate multi-family starts in 2013 to 13,800 units, it said.

“In Alberta’s resale market, MLS sales will increase by 11 per cent to 59,800 units in 2012. In 2013, resale transactions in Alberta are forecast to increase to 61,000 units. MLS sales in Alberta will rise this year and next year, as employment and income growth provide the means to purchase,” said the report.

“With a transition to balanced market conditions unfolding, expect price growth to increase over the forecast period. The average resale price in Alberta is projected to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2012 to $362,200, and nearly three per cent to $372,300 in 2013. Both of Alberta’s largest markets, Calgary and Edmonton, have experienced improved market balance this year.”

 

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com 

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Calgary real estate market stays the course
Sales activity trending towards long-term stability

Calgary, July 3, 2012 Residential sales in the City of Calgary totaled 11,752 for the first half of this year, a 16-per-cent increase over the same period last year. The rise in sales has brought activity levels closer to long-term trends in the city.

Recent mortgage rule changes may dampen some of the gains in the resale market, says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®s chief economist. But this is not expected to cause a full reversal of either sales or price growth, provided the global economic situation does not significantly worsen.

Our housing market is returning to normal levels of activity, supported by the improvements in our employment sector and rise in migration.

Single family monthly sales reached 1,609 units in June, a decline over the previous month, but 16 per cent higher than levels recorded in June 2011. However, new listings are declining as consumers appear to delay putting units on the market until they see further price recovery. Despite the decline, with a current inventory of 3,817, the supply constraint has eased and the single family market is moving towards more balanced levels.

Overall, the Calgary market is trending towards long-term stability, says Bob Jablonski, president of CREB®. Activity levels are consistent with our expectations, and are not demonstrating an overheated market. Weve seen a slight lack of supply in single-family homes, but this is not the case in the broader residential market, including surrounding towns.

The single-family benchmark price for the month of June 2012 was $430,800, a 7.3-per-cent increase over the previous year. Year-over-year price increases have been particularly strong in the recent months, in part due to the decline in months of supply. As the city moves towards balance, we can expect price growth to ease in following months.

Homebuyers are confident about the long-term prospects in our city, and continue to search for homes in those communities that align with their needs, Jablonski says. People who are in the market to buy right now have to make their decisions quicker, but they are well informed and they continue to seek out value for their money.

While June sales activity showed a modest improvement over last year, year-to-date condominium apartment sales totaled 1,858, a 7-per-cent increase over the first half of 2011. Both monthly and year-to-date sales remain consistent with long-term trends. The rise in sales over the first half of the year combined with a decline in listings helped reduce the excess supply. With supply hovering just above three months, the condominium apartment market remains in balance.

The condominium-apartment market recorded a modest improvement in pricing, with a benchmark price of $246,300 in June 2012, a year-over-year price gain of 1.5 per cent. The condominium-townhome benchmark price grew by 3.3 per cent over 2011, and is now $278,000.

Recent reports have mentioned an overvalued Canadian housing market, and it is important to note that the Calgary market has already recorded a correction, says Lurie, who notes benchmark prices in the entire CREB® residential market remain 8 per cent below peak levels. Alberta was slow to recover from the recession, but this year our province is expected to lead the country in economic growth. This growth will continue to support gains in full-time employment and encourage positive momentum in our local housing market by way of both demand and price recovery, Lurie concludes.

http://www.creb.com/

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Survey of Okotoks residents reveals acceptance of growth as inevitable

 BY THANDI FLETCHER, CALGARY HERALDJUNE 25, 2012
http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Survey+Okotoks+residents+reveals+acceptance+growth/6838812/story.html

OKOTOKS — Already feeling the strain on their collective waistband, more than three-quarters of Okotoks residents believe further growth of the town is inevitable despite a cap on growth, a new Ipsos Reid survey reveals.

The survey results offer insight to town councillors as they prepare to make a decision in the more than decade-long debate over how to manage development in the bedroom community just south of Calgary.

“Nobody is really denying that growth is going to happen,” Jamie Duncan, vice-president of Ipsos Reid, told the Herald on Monday. “What they’re looking for is clear direction on how it’s going to happen and what role the town is actually going to take in terms of managing that.”

Over the past five years, Okotoks has seen growth of 42.9 per cent, from a population of 17,150 in 2006 to 24,511 last year, according to 2011 census data.

In 1998 the town placed a 30,000 cap on its population. The Sheep River, the community’s water source, can only serve a maximum of 32,000.

On Sept. 24, town council will vote on whether to keep the cap or lift it and instead bid to annex enough land outside the town’s existing boundary to accommodate growth for the next 30 years. Lifting the cap will require the town to explore outside water options, including connecting to a regional water pipeline from Calgary.

The vote, originally planned for June 25, was postponed to allow councillors more time to consider their decision.

In late April the town commissioned the Ipsos survey, in paper and online, the results of which were discussed during Monday’s council meeting.

Of the survey respondents, 74 per cent are concerned about population growth. Of those, 33 per cent are “very concerned” and 41 per cent are “somewhat concerned” about growth.

Eighty-five per cent of survey respondents are concerned about the town’s water supply.

Driving many residents’ trepidation are concerns that Okotoks will lose its “small town feel,” a sentiment shared by resident Mary Ellen Goslin, who said she doesn’t want to see the population cap lifted.

“I like the small town atmosphere,” said Goslin, who has lived in Okotoks for six years. “You get to know people. . . . That’s why I live here, and not in Calgary.”

Of the survey respondents, 86 per cent say it’s important the town maintain its close-knit community atmosphere, including Monika McLachlan, owner of the Okotoks Candy Shoppe.

McLachlan said the small town appeal is what draws customers to her store.

“It’s a destination place, not just a bedroom community for Calgary,” she said.

Rather than have respondents choose future growth options, the survey gauged residents’ feelings about the quality of life, rate of growth, concerns about growth and confidence in town council to make the right decision.

“It certainly wasn’t a plebiscite question,” said Coun. Matt Rockley, who put forth the motion in March for the town to vote on the issue. “It wasn’t intended that this survey will make the decision for us. It was intended that we would receive information to help us determine . . . the best way forward.”

Sixty-six per cent of respondents are confident town councillors will make the best decision for the community.

“To me, that’s a great indication that people feel that council will make the right decision,” said Rockley. “They aren’t looking for a plebiscite to decide this issue.

Coun. Florence Christophers said council now needs to digest the survey results and decide on the best course of action.

“We have three months to get our game on,” Christophers said. “It’s our job. It’s our responsibility.”

Mayor Bill Robertson agreed. Debate on the population cap has been ongoing for years, and the vote has been postponed numerous times.

“I would be very disappointed if we didn’t make a decision on Sept. 24,” he told council.




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CBC – Thu, 21 Jun, 2012

 

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty has outlined new rules aimed at reining in a hot housing market and ensuring Canadians aren't taking on more debt than they can afford.

Flaherty laid out a series of changes to the rules that govern the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the Crown corporation that effectively oversees the housing market by insuring the vast majority of Canadian mortgages.

The most important new change is that the maximum amortization period has been reduced to 25 years, down from 30. The longer a mortgage is spread out, the lower the monthly mortgage payments are — but the more the borrower ends up paying overall over time.

The impact of the change is likely to be significant. It's about the same as a 0.9 percentage point increase on a typical mortgage, Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavcic noted.

Indeed, the numbers add up. A $300,000 mortgage spread over 30 years at 4.0 per cent would cost $1,426 a month to pay back. That same mortgage amortized over only 25 years increases the monthly payment by $152 or 10 per cent to $1,578 a month.

Ultimately though, the higher monthly payment saves the borrower money in the long run. The total interest payments are $213,558.91 on the 30-year mortgage, but only $173,416.20 on the 25-year one.

The shortened amortization is also likely to affect a huge segment of the market, as about 40 per cent of all new mortgages were amortized over 30 years last year, the Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals estimates.

Anyone who needed or wanted a 30-year mortgage before is going to have to qualify under tougher 25-year requirements now.

Ottawa has now moved three times to rein in the maximum mortgage term, since the CMHC briefly started insuring mortgages with 40-year terms in 2006. The limit was brought down to 35 years, then 30 and now the more traditional 25.

"The reductions to the maximum amortization period since 2008 would save a typical Canadian family with a $350,000 mortgage about $150,000 in borrowing costs over the life of that mortgage," Flaherty said.

"Our government has encouraged Canadians to borrow responsibly," Flaherty said. "Most Canadians have done so."

At 25 years, the maximum amortization period for CMHC-backed loans is now back to where it had historically been before the Harper government began raising the period after taking office in 2006.

Interim Liberal Leader Bob Rae made that very point in question period on Thursday, asking Prime Minister Stephen Harper if raising CMHC's limit to 40 years in the first place was a mistake.

"The government has altered rules a number of times and will continue to do so on a prudent and flexible manner depending on the circumstances," the prime minister replied.

Flaherty also outlined a few other measures Thursday.

The government has lowered the total amount that Canadians can withdraw when refinancing their homes to 80 per cent of the home's value, from 85 per cent.

"This will promote saving through home ownership and encourage homeowners to prudently manage borrowings against their homes," Flaherty said.

Flaherty also moved to cap the maximum gross debt service ratio at 39 per cent and the maximum total debt service ratio at 44 per cent in order to get CMHC insurance. Banks calculate the former by adding up mortgage payments and property taxes on a home loan, and dividing by the borrower's income. The latter adds in other debt payments such as lines of credit and credit cards to the top side of the ledger.

Although they both have obscure, technical names, they're both effectively just limits on how much debt a borrower is allowed to take on as a percentage of their overall income. That move, too, is aimed at making sure borrowers can't bite off more than they can chew.

The final change was to limit CMHC insurance to homes priced under $1 million. "Wealthy people can borrow whatever they want from banks, and they can work that out from banks," Flaherty said. "That is not my concern."

That effectively means that a homebuyer who wants to purchase a home for more than $1 million can't get insurance on it — which in turn means the buyer will have to come up with the 20 per cent down payment requirement in order to get an uninsured mortgage.

So under any circumstance, any new borrower wanting to buy a home of $1 million or more is going to have to put $200,000 down at a minimum. That's also likely to have a major impact on a comparatively small segment of the market.

"Although this could create some market dislocations in the just-under-$1-million segment, it's consistent with CMHC's recent efforts to focus its insurance business on encouraging owner-occupied purchases among average Canadians," BMO economist Michael Gregory noted.

All of the changes will be in effect as of July 9, 2012. In the interim, the action in hot Canadian housing markets is likely to get even hotter, experts say, as borrowers scramble to get in ahead of the more stringent rules.

"As we’ve observed around prior mortgage rule changes, some housing market activity will likely be pulled forward ahead of the implementation date," Kavcic noted.

But there's likely to be a subsequent pullback, too, he says. The last time Ottawa tinkered with CMHC rules, home sales fell by three per cent in the two months following the implementation date.

The Canadian Real Estate Association reacted coolly to the news on Thursday, calling it a "measured response" to rein in debt loads, but taking pains to note that the home resale market contributes $20 billion a year to Canada's economy and as such, is deserving of caution.

"Going forward, we would urge the government to consider the impact of further interventions in the market carefully," CREA said.

 

http://ca.news.yahoo.com/ottawa-caps-cmhc-mortgages-25-235532064.html

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Calgary, June 1, 2012 May 2012 residential sales in the City of Calgary increased by 31.8 per cent over last year, to 2,385, making it the highest May activity since the recession.

In the past month, easing concerns regarding Calgarys    long- term economic prospects combined with continued full-time job growth and low interest rates, has contributed to the rise in housing demand, pushing sales to levels more consistent with long term trends, says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB®s chief economist.  However, we are not out of the woods in terms or economic risks, as recent indicators point towards weak growth in the U.S. economy and increased uncertainty in global markets.

Demand growth continues to outpace supply in the single-family market.  Monthly sales reached 1,710 units in May, resulting in year-to-date sales 19.1 per cent higher than the same period last year.  While new listings recorded a year-over-year increase of 6.7 per cent, this did little to alleviate the supply constraint in the single-family market. Inventories totaled 3,842 in May, keeping months of supply in seller territory, with less than 2.5 months of supply.

With less supply in the single-family market, buyers are making their decisions quicker, says Becky Walters, CREB®s president-elect. As a result, weve seen a reduction in the amount of time homes stay on the market, and sellers are getting figures closer to their list price.

The single-family benchmark price for the month of May 2012 was $427,500, a 6.7-per-cent increase over the previous year.  Prices were expected to record modest gains this year and, while the increase is higher than expected, the single-family benchmark price remains 5.3-per-cent below the peak price of $451,400, reached in July 2007.

Buyers are also turning to surrounding areas and the condominium markets, both of which have adequate supply levels and price growth that remain below single-family levels, Walters says.

After the first five months of the year, condominium-apartment sales totaled 1,518, an 8.7-per-cent increase over the same period last year.  New listings for the month rose by 5.4 per cent compared to last year, but on a year-to-date basis, they remain at comparable levels.  As the number of sales outpaced new listings, total inventory levels of apartment condominiums have retracted by 3 per cent over May 2011, and with three months of supply, firmly moved into balanced territory. 

The condominium-apartment market recorded a modest improvement in pricing, with a benchmark price of $245,400 in May 2012, a year-over-year price gain of one per cent.  Meanwhile, condominium-townhome benchmark prices appreciated by 3 per cent over last year for a monthly price of $277,000.

While there have been some conflicting opinions on the national housing market, particularly with price expectations, the Calgary housing market does not appear to reflect either a boom or a bust scenario, and is simply returning to activity levels consistent with a normal market, says Lurie. The current low supply in the single-family market has pushed up pricing slightly higher than anticipated.  However, sufficient supply in the remaining housing industry combined with economic uncertainty will likely prevent a repeat of the price jumps recorded in the not-so-distant past. 

 

About CREB®

CREB® is a professional body of more than 5,100 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 238 member offices. CREB® is dedicated to enhancing the value, integrity and expertise of its REALTOR® members. Our REALTORS® are committed to a high standard of professional conduct, ongoing education, and a strict Code of Ethics and standards of business practice.

 

For Calgary Metro, CREB® statistics include only Zone A, B, C and D for properties located in Calgary. Furthermore, all historical data has been adjusted to the most current information.

 

Any use or reference to CREB® data and statistics must acknowledge CREB® as the source. The board does not generate statistics or analysis of any individual member or companys market share.

 

Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas. All MLS® active listings for Calgary and area may be found on the boards website at www.creb.com.

 

CREB® is a registered trademark of the Calgary Real Estate Board Cooperative. The trademarks MLS® and Multiple Listing Service® are owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. The trademarks REALTOR® and REALTORS® are controlled by CREA and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA, and subsequently the Alberta Real Estate Association and CREB®, used under licence.

 

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Calgary leads country in year-over-year MLS sales growth

Increase of 30.3%

CALGARY — Calgary led the country in April with the highest year-over-year growth in MLS sales, according to the Canadian Real Estate Association.

In a report released Tuesday of housing market activity in Canada’s major centres, CREA said MLS sales of 2,720 in Calgary were up 30.3 per cent from a year ago.

In Canada, sales of 49,480 for the month increased by 11.5 per cent from April 2011.

The average MLS sale price in Calgary rose by 0.7 per cent to $414,932 while it was up 0.9 per cent in Canada to $375,810.

“Calgary is quietly becoming a market to watch,” said Robert Kavcic, economist with BMO Capital Markets, adding sales are back above the 10-year average for the first time in about three years.

“Prices have yet to gain much momentum but supply conditions are tightening rapidly across Alberta. The months’ supply was down to 4.6 from a post-recession high of more than eight, and sales have far outpaced new listings in recent months. If oil prices remain high enough to continue supporting strong economic growth and migration flows, Calgary could again become Canada’s real estate hot spot in short order.”

Robert Hogue, senior economist with RBC Economics, said April was the third consecutive “outsized” increase in Calgary which is a “clear indication that this market is finally taking flight.”

New listings in Calgary of 4,370 increased by 4.4 per cent from last year. Throughout Canada, new listings rose by 4.9 per cent to 89,739.

In Alberta, sales rose by 23.5 per cent to 6,191, new listings increased by 2.4 per cent to 10,718 units and the average sale price was up 1.9 per cent to $365,830.

“A number of Canadian housing market trends in April remained intact from the previous month,” said Wayne Moen, president of CREA. “Trends in Vancouver and Toronto continue to diverge. These two housing markets have an obvious influence on national statistics . . .”

In Toronto, sales of 10,350 in April were up 14.5 per cent from last year and the average sale price rose by 8.4 per cent to $517,556. But in Vancouver sales fell by 13.2 per cent to 2,837 and the average price dropped by 9.8 per cent to $735,315.

 

“It bears repeating that the national average price was skewed higher last spring by record level high-end home sales in Vancouver’s priciest neighbourhoods, and that a replay of this phenomenon was not expected this year,” said Gregory Klump, chief economist of CREA. “Sales data confirm that high-end activity in Vancouver is well off the peak levels reached at this time last year, which is exerting a gravitational pull on the national average price.

“By contrast, activity in Toronto is stronger this spring than it was last spring. Higher-priced sales activity there is on the rise and buoying average prices. As the most active housing market in Canada, Toronto is the biggest factor supporting national average price.

 

“Netting Vancouver out of the national average price calculation yields a 4.9 per cent year-on-year gain. Netting Toronto out of the national average price calculation, while leaving Vancouver in, produces a 2.2 per cent year-on-year decline. Netting out both Vancouver and Toronto results in a 3.1 per cent increase in average price. On balance, this points to modest price growth amid balanced market conditions in much of the rest of Canada.”

Diana Petramala, economist with TD Economics, said absent of an external negative economic shock, Canadian housing demand should remain supported by a continued low interest rate environment through 2012.

“Still, growth in home prices and sales will likely be limited as the overvaluation has led to a deterioration in affordability,” said Petramala. “Overall, we anticipate the Canadian housing market to remain relatively flat in the coming year with home prices to rise just another two per cent this year, following gains of seven per cent in each of the last two years.”

 

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com


Read more: http://www.calgaryherald.com/business/Calgary+leads+country+year+over+year+sales+growth/6623311/story.html#ixzz1v0cDk1YW

 

Canadian home sales edge higher in April

''Activity was either up or held steady in half of all local markets in April, with Toronto and Calgary posting the biggest monthly increases for the second month in a row. Activity gains in Montreal, Winnipeg, Edmonton, as well as London and St. Thomas also made significant contributions to the national sales increase in April. Increased activity in these markets offset monthly declines in Ottawa, Windsor-Essex, Quebec City, the Fraser Valley, and Vancouver.''  Quote from crea.ca article May 15-2012

crea.ca article

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Airdrie housing market booming

New home construction and resale homes see increased activity

 
 

 

CALGARY — The City of Airdrie, just north of Calgary, is experiencing a housing market boom these days.

From new home construction to resales, activity has taken an upward swing this year.

“The housing market in Airdrie is hot,” said Curt Woodhall, vice-president of sales and marketing for Vesta Properties, the developer and builder of the new Williamstown project in northwest Airdrie. “Vesta builds in a number of communities in Alberta and British Columbia and the Airdrie market in particular is very robust.”

Year-to-date, there have been 107 housing starts in Williamstown. Sales so far this year have included 60 for about $17 million with the average selling price of about $310,000.

The development on 66 hectares will have a total of 1,013 homes — 600 multi-family and 413 single-family — and over 60 per cent have already been sold.

“Vesta Properties is experiencing tremendous success in Williamstown in Airdrie,” said Woodhall, adding there will be 12 show home openings at the project’s grand opening celebration Saturday. “With low interest rates and good value for your dollar, we are seeing demand on every housing type from starter condominiums to luxury homes.”

According to the 2011 census, Airdrie’s population was 43,155, up 8.37 per cent from the year before. In the past decade, the population has more than doubled. In 2001, it was 20,382.

Kent Rupert, Airdrie’s economic development team leader, said the building permit numbers for Airdrie are good this year.

“I say that every year but it just seems like we keep growing and growing. We had a bit of a blip in 2009 and 2010 but last year we did over 1,000 doors. That’s houses, duplex, multi-family. This year we’re ahead of where we were last year.”

Commercial and industrial development in the north part of Calgary is a factor.

“The good news is yes we’re seeing lots of new development but with it being in Rocky View and Airdrie where are the people going to live ... Our residential is growing,” said Rupert.

He said about 40 to 50 per cent of people living in Airdrie work outside the community.

“It really depends on people’s lifestyles but certainly when we were a lot smaller 19,000-20,000 people came out here for that small town and everything else. Now we’re growing up into a young, dynamic city and there’s lots of excitement going on with new restaurants, new retail and big, larger industrial projects. There’s a real excitement throughout the city,” said Rupert.

Year-to-date until the end of March, residential building permits of 342 are up from 268 in 2011, 191 in 2010 and 81 in 2009.

A similar boom is taking place in the resale housing market.

“Sales activity in Airdrie soared in the first quarter of 2012, with a 44-per-cent increase over the previous year, marking the best quarter (one) sales performance since 2007,” said the Calgary Real Estate Board in a report.

“The significant rise in sales, combined with lower listings, pushed the market into balanced conditions.”

CREB said the MLS Home Price Index for single-family homes was up three per cent over the previous year with the benchmark price at $354,933 in the first quarter.

It said the single-family benchmark price in Airdrie was $354,300 in March, a two per cent increase over the previous year and roughly $79,000 less than the single-family price in Calgary.

 

http://www.calgaryherald.com/story_print.html?id=6607844&sponsor=curriebarracks

mtoneguzzi@calgaryherald.com

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Calgary, April 2, 2012 City of Calgary residential sales continued to rise in March 2012, reaching 2,167 units, an increase of 12.6 per cent over last March.

 

The rise in activity is related to the continued improvement of our economy and consumer confidence, as some concerns regarding the global economy have eased, says Ann-Marie Lurie, CREB® chief economist.

 

After the first quarter of 2012, sales are up by 7.3 per cent over the same time last year. While the increase is significant, when compared to historic activity, residential sales continue to remain below the long-term trend. Monthly new listings remain slightly lower than last year, whereas year-to-date figures show 7.2 per cent fewer listings have come onto the market in the first quarter of this year.

 

While the number of listings for the first quarter of 2012 remains low compared to last year, the level of decline has lessened, says Bob Jablonski, president of CREB®; therefore pointing to the fact that those people who have been on the fence are starting to list their homes, and this trend is expected to continue.

 

The year-over-year decline in new listings, combined with improving sales, has pushed down inventory levels to 5,092 units from 5,866 last year, as well as months of supply. However, as Jablonski notes, it is not uncommon for the months of supply to decline in March as we transition from the winter season to the spring season.

 

Recently, the tightening supply has brought about much discussion of multiple offers on houses. It is important to note that multiple offers can happen during any market with a well priced listing or a unique property, says Jablonski. New listings coming onto the market at a good price are generating a lot of activity, but year-over-year index price growth for the typical home in Calgary in March was 2.9 per cent, which is considered a normal range. Also, the sales-price to list-price ratio does not reflect levels recorded during the peak of the market, when there were supply shortages, Jablonski adds.

 

Single family homes continue to record strong activity, with sales increasing by 10.3 per cent at the end of the first quarter.Meanwhile, quarter totals for listings of single-family homes remain 8.3 per cent lower, resulting in a tightening of supply. The benchmark price reached $433,500, while the MLS® Home Price Index points towards a price growth of 3.6 per cent compared to last year.

 

The apartment condominium market continues to exhibit lower sales, with 782 sales recorded in the first quarter of 2012, a decline of 2.1 per cent compared to last year. However, March sales activity did post a 7.2 per cent gain over last year and is closer in line with typical March sales in this sector. New listings recorded a year-over-year improvement of 9.1 per cent for the month of March, but still remain 2.3 per cent lower than last year at the end of the first quarter. Despite the monthly rise in new listings, inventories continue to decline. Overall market conditions continue to favour the buyer.

 

The condominium apartment and townhouse benchmark price for the month of March was $247,800 and $293,600, respectively. While the apartment index price has remained relatively stable compared to last year, the condominium townhouse index recorded a modest improvement of 1.96 per cent over last year.

 

The single family market continues to lead the housing growth in both sales activity and pricing, and the condominium market appears to have turned the corner as well, Jablonski concludes. Overall, the Calgary real estate market continues to move in the right direction, with all indicators pointing towards stable growth and a move towards typical levels of activity.

 
 

About CREB®

CREB® is a professional body of more than 5,100 licensed brokers and registered associates, representing 243 member offices. CREB® is dedicated to enhancing the value, integrity and expertise of its REALTOR® members. Our REALTORS® are committed to a high standard of professional conduct, ongoing education, and a strict Code of Ethics and standards of business practice.

 

For Calgary Metro, CREB® statistics include only Zone A, B, C and D for properties located in Calgary. Furthermore, all historical data has been adjusted to the most current information.

 

Any use or reference to CREB® data and statistics must acknowledge CREB® as the source. The board does not generate statistics or analysis of any individual member or companys market share.

 

Average price information can be useful in establishing trends over time, but does not indicate actual prices in centres comprised of widely divergent neighbourhoods, or account for price differentials between geographical areas. All MLS® active listings for Calgary and area may be found on the boards website at www.creb.com.

 

CREB® is a registered trademark of the Calgary Real Estate Board Cooperative. The trademarks MLS® and Multiple Listing Service® are owned by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. The trademarks REALTOR® and REALTORS® are controlled by CREA and identify real estate professionals who are members of CREA, and subsequently the Alberta Real Estate Association and CREB®, used under licence.

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There’s been some chatter around Calgary about potential home buyers deciding to wait on property ownership (or forgo it altogether) deciding to rent instead. Newspaper articles report on Calgary’s “cult of home ownership” and that more than 80% of those surveyed wouldn’t purchase a home now.

 

I admit there are those better suited to renting but the majority of Calgarians who are building careers and growing their families are kidding themselves if they believe they’re better off renting than buying.

 

Alberta is the most affordable housing market in Canada (RBC Economics Research:  http://www.rbc.com/newsroom/pdf/HA-1125-2011.pdf). Strong employment and high income levels in this province combined with incredibly low interest rates means that owning a home in this province is one of the best financial moves you can make.

 

On a $350,000 house that you own for just 3 years, you will make approx $15,000 (with an average increase of 3%/yr after commissions). To save that you would have to bank about $420/mo in addition to paying your rent.

 

Add this $15,000 to the $17,500 that was your initial down payment (based on 5% down on original purchase of $350,000) and you now have $32,500 equity to pull out of your house. That would take $900/mo savings on top of paying rent.

 

These numbers are based on staying in that house for 3 years, the average is 6 years.

 

The best way to ‘save’ for a down payment is by owning the home you live in and building equity in it.

 

This will mean that your first home isn’t likely going to be everything you want but let’s face it your first job wasn’t likely what you wanted to do for the rest of your life; you build and move up. Home ownership takes the same path..

 

If you have questions or comments about anything in this blog be sure to contact me.

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Calgary’s real estate market poised to turn the corner in 2012: CREB

BY MARIO TONEGUZZI, CALGARY HERALD JANUARY 4, 2012 8:05 PM

 

CALGARY — Calgary’s residential real estate market is poised to turn the corner as 2012 will signal increasing demand for housing in the city, says the president of the Calgary Real Estate Board.

“I believe it’s imminent that we’ll start to see the result of all those economic indicators come to fruition and hit the ground, get traction this coming year. It’s got to happen,” said Sano Stante in a year-end 2011 interview.

All those positive economic indicators include strong economic growth, increased net migration and continued employment growth for both the city and the province.

 

But two reports in mid-December suggested some dark clouds could be on the horizon for the overall Canadian real estate market this year.

Scotia Economics, in its Global Real Estate Trends report, said Canada’s ongoing housing boom is in its 13th year but showing some signs of cooling. It said increased economic uncertainty combined with some recent slowing in the pace of hiring could dampen demand in the new year.

 

And a report by Bank of America Merrill Lynch said Canadian home prices are now showing many of the signs of a “classic bubble” with prices nationwide overvalued by about 10 per cent.

Also a report by TD Economics forecast residential sales in Calgary to increase by 0.1 per cent in 2012 to 22,600 units but drop by 3.3 per cent in 2013 to 21,900. The report is predicting the average price to grow by 0.5 per cent in 2012 to $404,100 but dip by 1.6 per cent in 2013 to $397,800.

 

“Calgary will not be immune from the impacts of higher interest rates and in turn, we have incorporated modest price and sales declines in 2013. Relative to the national story, however, the region is expected to out-perform most others over our forecast period,” said TD Economics.

 

Don Campbell, president of the Real Estate Investment Network, said the past year’s market has been a year of recovery as the market adjusted to the job and population slowdown of 2010.

“Any job and population changes aren’t reflected in the real estate market until 18 months after they occur. Confusing signals from the market numbers were expected and that is what we experienced,” he said.

“2012, especially in the second half of the year, we will see upward pressure on demand for resale real estate, which will be a good time for owners to start moving properties.

 

Average price increases will start to be more consistent in the back half of the year as the population and job growth continues to keep the pressure and increase demand. The big upward pressure on prices will really begin in early 2013.”

Stante said 2011 was more typical than some past years in the local real estate market.

“It’s more typical of what you might expect in this cycle of a normal recovery,” he said.

“In that cycle of a typical recovery you start to have some decreasing supply and we’re starting to see that now. We’re starting to see decreasing supply and the next phase is for demand to pick up.

 

“All the economic indicators are pointing to that. We’ve been saying all year that we are due for more in-migration which is a leading indicator for real estate, for the housing market. We’ve just started to see it happen. So it’s not a matter of whether it will happen. We see oil companies are filling up space. That tells you that they’re hiring. It tells you that jobs are coming. But what we don’t know is when they’re going to hit the ground in the real estate market. It’s more a matter of when than if.”

 

In 2011, there were 13,186 single-family MLS sales in Calgary, up 9.06 per cent from the previous year while the average sale price increased by 1.14 per cent to $466,402. There were 5,382 condo sales, up 3.98 per cent, but the average price dipped by 0.94 per cent to $287,172.

Dan Sumner, economist with ATB Financial in Calgary, described the local housing market in 2011 as “slightly disappointing.”

“We definitely saw a rise in sales from 2010 but sales still remain quite slow compared to 10-year averages ... Prices have been flat for now 2 years and it really continued along in 2011,” he said.

Sumner said he’s cautiously optimistic for 2012.

 

“Overall the Canadian housing market in general I wouldn’t say it’s in a place where I’d want to put a lot of money right now if I had to bet on it,” he said. “But as far as housing markets in Canada go, I think the ones in Alberta are probably the best — Edmonton and Calgary. That’s just because the economy here is really growing quite strongly and because prices have been a little bit slower to rise over the last couple of years.

 

“The Alberta economy is performing beautifully. It continues to perform beautifully. As long as oil prices remain up where they are, it’s never a certainty, but given the fact they’ve been very resilient thus far ... then the Alberta economy is going to continue to hum along.”

He also said there is no indication there will be much upward movement in interest rates in 2012 which will help fuel sales in the real estate sector.

 

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp., in its Housing Market Outlook report in the fall, forecast MLS sales in the Calgary census metropolitan area to increase by 2.3 per cent in 2012 and the average sale price to jump by 2.2 per cent to $411,000.

“Many factors that support resale housing demand have become or remained favourable this year, including growth in full-time employment, low mortgage rates, and improved net migration,” said the agency. “However, competing factors such as uncertainty in the global economy has kept some prospective buyers on the fence and will continue to temper any large increases in sales.”

 

The Calgary Herald

 

Creb.com

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City of Calgary Property Assessment

 What is property assessment?

 

The City of Calgary Assessment business unit estimates the market value of your property for the purpose of distributing fair and equitable taxation.

We are governed by the Municipal Government Act of the Province of Alberta. The estimated value we place on your property comes from the measurement, analysis and interpretation of the real estate market.

Property assessment is the estimated value of a property used for Municipal and Provincial taxation purposes. The formula used to determine your property tax is:

Property assessed value x Tax Rate = Your property tax levy.

July 01, 2011 valuation date

 

Your Property Assessment Notice reflects the estimated market value of your property based on the valuation date of July 01, 2011, as set by the Municipal Government Act. Real estate market conditions may change from the time of the valuation date to when you receive your 2011 assessment. Market changes that have occurred since July 01, 2011 will be reflected on your 2013 annual market value assessment, which will be mailed in January 2012. Your 2013 assessment will be based on a July 01, 2012 valuation date.

Mass appraisal

 

Mass appraisal is the process of valuing a group of properties as of a given date using standard methodology, employing common data and allowing for statistical testing. The process is based on mass appraisal models that are an expression of how supply and demand factors interact in the real estate market.

Residential property assessment

 

When we prepare residential assessments, we will analyze market activity for similar properties in similar area that have sold during the same timeframe.  Through analyzing properties that have sold, we are able to provide market value assessments to both the sold properties and those properties that didn't sell.  This is called the sales comparison approach to valuation.

Multi-residential property assessment

 

For multi-residential property assessments we use the income approach to valuation – capitalize the income being generated by the property.

Non-residential property assessment

 

In determining non-residential assessments, we use one of three approaches to value, depending on the type of non-residential property:

  • Sales comparison approach – sales of similar properties.
  • Income approach – capitalize the income being generated by the property.
  • Cost approach – market value of land plus the depreciated replacement cost of the improvement.
     

    How property assessment relates to taxes

     

    Property assessment

     

    Market value is the most probable price that a property would sell for on the open market on a given date. An assessor reviews and measures the real estate market to establish typical market value. 

    For more information about the property assessment process please view:

    Your 2012 property assessment 

     

    Council decides what budget The City needs in the coming year. Then, using the total city-wide assessed property base, Council sets the tax rate to bring in only the funds it needs from property tax.
    Tax rate = City budgetary needs
                       ÷
                   Total assessed value of Calgary properties

    Your assessment is the market value of your property.
    Assessment = market value

    If Council approves a tax increase, your May tax levy will increase from the revenue neutral tax amount shown on your 2012 Property Assessment Notice by the same percentage as the increase in tax rates between 2011 and 2012 (subject also to changes in the provincial property tax rate).

    Your share is then calculated by applying the tax rate to your assessment.
    Individual share of tax = assessment x tax rate

    What your property taxes support

     

    Your property taxes support the delivery of key City services that ensure our vibrant, healthy city and great communities, and are the primary source of funding for The City’s operating budget. City services include transportation and transit, police and fire protection, land use planning and policy, advancing social policy, recreation, waste removal, parks and many others. Almost half of all residential property taxes (44 per cent in 2011) collected by The City are sent to the Province of Alberta to meet provincial government budgetary requirements. For more information please review Property Tax.

     

     

    Information supplied by the City of Calgary link

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Data is supplied by Pillar 9™ MLS® System. Pillar 9™ is the owner of the copyright in its MLS®System. Data is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed accurate by Pillar 9™.
The trademarks MLS®, Multiple Listing Service® and the associated logos are owned by The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) and identify the quality of services provided by real estate professionals who are members of CREA. Used under license.